Team Results For 2018
Francesco's Angles: (From L to R) Francesco, David, Bubba, Chris and Marc
OTC 2017 is over and a big thanks have to go out to Scott Talarico, Agatha Dobosz and all the others who made such a huge event possible.
This year the OTC was played over 4 rounds for most of us and cut to the top 4 teams for round 5.
The scenarios in order were: Outlast, The Pit, Extraction, Entrenched, and Incursion.
Using the player record sheets, some statistics and charts were put together to give a sense of what is going on in the Southern Ontario meta. As always remember that this particular tournament format does not fully represent the usual meta you will see at a Steamroller. Also, some small amount of data was not reported so you should consider the values as approximates. Finally, we did not get data on caster vs. caster or faction vs. faction match ups (wish we could have gotten this!). Okay, let’s get to the results!
Control Points scored: 1,204 (average 1.95 CPs per player per game)
Army Points Destroyed: 34,571 (average 56 points per player per game)
Mercenaries did the best on scenario scoring an average of 2.58 CPs per game played while Circle was the most destructive with an average of 58.6 points destroyed per game played (Technically, Convergence had a better score than Circle but with only 2 CoC players the data are not reliable).
The table below gives some general stats on how live the scenarios were and how many points were destroyed. Out of the first 4 rounds The Pit, with its defensive dominating of a flag and large centre zone won on both fronts. Round 5 was played only by the top 4 teams and I think the results are quite telling of how scenario and attrition focused these games must have been.
Caster Win Rate
Twenty-three casters were played 10 times or more at the OTC and their win rates are provided below with the number of times played in brackets beside the caster name. A full list of all the casters played is at the bottom of this post.
Due to the number of Khador players at the OTC, the number of Khador casters in the top 23 is much greater. We also see Retribution in the mix as well as the 2 most-popular Circle warlocks.
Another point to consider is that the more a caster is played the greater the chance the caster could lose. For instance, the top 5 casters were played 10 to 14 times while the most played casters (Lylyth3, Wurmwood, Haley2, Kaelyssa, Ossrum, and Butcher3) with 18 to 25 plays each had win rates of 52.6% to 66.7%... except for Butcher3 (18 plays) who clocked in at an astonishing 33.3% win rate. The most played casters are all arguably the go-to casters of their factions and from the data it appears that either they are all not that good (unlikely) or most players expected them and had a plan (more likely).
Faction Win Rate
Below is the faction win rates with the total number of games played per faction. Number of plays is pretty important here – see: Convergence of Cyriss which performed well but only had 2 players and 8 games total. Really, even the Minions and Cryx results should be taken with a grain of salt considering they have 20 to 50 fewer games than most other factions. That said, the success of Cryx was almost entirely driven by Denny1.
Among the factions that are well-represented, Cygnar and Legion are at the top with 57 and 56% win rates, respectively. Circle, Mercenaries and Retribution fall into the middle with 50 to 51.5% win rates and despite having the most games played, Khador finished a strong 3rd last with a 47% win rate. It is important to note at this point that when there are so many players in the same faction, mirror matches are bound to happen which will push the faction win rate toward 50%.
Coming in at last place is Skorne with a 42.8% win rate (1.2% below Menoth). Frankly, I would chalk this up to the list lock occurring about a week or two after the Skorne errata which probably did not give players enough time to properly develop their lists. Also, it seems that while the Skorne errata was substantial, it was not enough for them to dark horse their way to more victories.
And just for comparison, let’s compare to the results from OTC 2016 (right). In 2016 the spread of win rates was much bigger (38% to 66% in 2016 compared to 42% to 57% this year) making it seem that the Mk3 ruleset may have done quite a bit to even out the playing field.
Just like this year with CoC, Minions and Cryx, last year Khador performed well above other factions but played fewer games meaning that a few good performances by strong players were more likely to skew the win rate upward.
Warmachine Vs. Hordes
Warmachine factions had a win rate of 50.51% while Hordes factions had a win rate of 50.45%. How is it possible that these numbers do not add up to 100% you may ask? About 23 game results were not reported (out of a potential 640 results that isn’t awful). That said, those 23 game results are for a mixture of Warmachine and Hordes factions so the overall win rate for these two groups probably would not change that much.
Bonus: Complete caster win rate with number of plays in parentheses